We Never See Nothing

i am not sure about this but it seems to me that for a crypto with a finite supply, the coins will migrate to holders by definition. this combined with people losing private keys, dying without willing private keys to heirs (and I think that will be doozy of an effect — any movie about a rich dying relative will show how paranoid people are), increased adoption/more use cases will result in scarcity. not to mention decrease in supply every 4 years or so.

i think there is an “organic” component to the price based on scarcity and usage while speculation causes swings as maybe people who believe in the ever-increasing scarcity pay more than the current organic component justifies — miners need to sell coins to stay in operation.

the organic component will gradually increase and maybe technical analysis, which might really work on a finite resource that can’t have new shares issued or bad earnings reports, will help predict the eventual price.

what mean about nuts in a jar is that the little nuts inevitably migrate towards the bottom (just as crypto migrates to holders) — this is just physics and maybe some analogous law determines the price of some (not all) cryptos. probably those cryptos that have shown themselves unwilling to do things that result in extra coins being minted are most likely to be coins that will predictably become scarcer.